Saturday, 14 October 2017

China Sneezes Aussie Catches A Cold

Caixin Services PMI, an index that captures both services & manufacturing performance of China declined in September to 50.6. The release of this index saw the Australian dollar plunge to 0.7751 (as at the time of writing) this comes on the back of Australia being a major source of raw material export to China. Lower client demand and marginal rise in input cost dragged down the index in September. The index which showed China's Services sector grew the weakest in 21 months in September just might be reflecting the Chinese economy in the 4th quarter of the year. The bearish sentiment on AUD will most likely be retained for the rest of the day as the bank holidays in US, Canada & Japan has pared volumes.

The Euro area was awash with positivity as the German Industrial Production and Sentix Investors Confidence indices both showed significant growth. The German Industrial Production index turned positive, beating analyst expectations by 1.7 to 2.6, while the Sentix Investors Confidence index which is an opinion poll of analyst & investors on their outlook of the economy, rose to 29.7 from 28.2 in August. This signals the German economy is moving past the Bundestag hung election results and investors are bullish about the performance of the Eurozone economy in the coming months. This notwithstanding the Euro traded flat for most part of the day ranging between 1.1728 & 1.1755 as the US, Canada & Japan are on a bank holiday.

The Kiwi traded flat for most of the day, closing at 0.7063 which is just 2 pips higher than its open price. New Zealand's final election results were made public on Saturday and the result showed no clear winner. Majority of the votes were divided between the two most prominent parties the National and Labour party. At the final count, National had 56 seats while, Labour held 46. This means both major parties would have to seek a coalition with other political parties. The next best party, New Zealand First with 9 seats has hinted that it would announce which party to form a coalition government with on the 12th of October 2017. Analysts are of the opinion that New Zealand First will settle with National Party given its conservative ideology. Investors are uncomfortable with a Labour party win as Labour leader Jacinda Ardern has promised to ruffle feathers with her immigration policy and monetary policy change.

US negotiations with North Korea seem a waste as Kim Jong Un has threatened to test missiles reaching the US' west coast. This led to a free fall of the dollar at market opened on Sunday losing gains from the release of non-farm payroll data. The US army is getting ready for a war with North Korea. This will put a lot of pressure on the dollar in the coming days and a rise in safe havens like the Yen and Gold.

On the energy side of things, Saudi Arabia's oil company, Aramco announced it would be cutting its oil supply by 569,000 barrels a day in November despite high customer demand. This is the deepest cut in its history. This shows the countries commitment to getting oil prices back on a bullish run. At the announcement, Brent crude erased declines to trade marginally higher at $55.62 per barrel.

Gold returned to the greens after the doldrums recorded the prior week. It rose to 1,275.24 from its close price of 1,260.51 the week before, as the news of North Korea's planned missile test in US stirred volatility. The yellow metal since falling from the psychological 1.300 three weeks back has been on a downward spiral, continued volatility in the market will keep Gold in the greens.

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