Shopping for a new Fed chair is under way, as news coming from the
US reports Mr Taylor John had an impressive interview last week with president
Trump. This drove the dollar northward, as Taylor John is known for policy
rules in line with higher interest rates. The dollar gained momentum, as
Investors opine a Taylor led Fed would raise interest rate early 2018. The
present Chairperson of the Fed Janet Yellen is expected to hold her interview
with the president later this week, as her tenure ends February 2018. The
dollar gained with GBP/USD falling to 1.3154 from 1.3268. Housing starts and
building permits are the two major economic indicators on the dollar's calendar
today. Both of which are not looking so good in terms of analyst forecast, this
gives life to the notion that the rise in the dollar will be short-lived.
Despite a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 3%, the British Pounds
couldn't hold its own against other major currencies as GBP/USD shed 0.58% to
trade at 1.3154. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer spending, rose to 3%
y/y given the effect of a weaker pound on imports. The currency has shed 12%
since the Brexit Referendum in June 2016. The rise in CPI gives support to the
BoE's plan of a rate hike in November. The BoE governor testifying before the
Treasury Select Committee in London on Tuesday noted he expected inflation
would peak in October or November, and that the bank had refrained from acting
earlier to raise rates in order to lower inflation, saying that high inflation
was a "trade-off" in order to hamper the economy.
The decline in the pound comes on the back of the Brexit talks
deadlock. Theresa May is pushing for trade talks with the EU, but the EU won't
talk trade with the UK until conclusions are reached on Britain's payment when
it leaves the European Union, the status of the border with Northern Ireland
and the jurisdiction of the European High Court on European citizens living in
the UK. The EU could hold off trade talk with the UK till 2018. The BoE
governor noted that the Bank has made contingency plans in case no agreement is
reached between both parties. British businesses are however soliciting for an
agreement, and want a 2-year interim period, such as a temporary customs union
with the EU, in order to soften the blow of leaving the EU. Data on wage growth
and unemployment are expected by 9:30am Wednesday.
The Euro traded a little lower on Tuesday on the back of lower than
expected German ZEW economic sentiment report. The report which is an indicator
of investors/analyst sentiment on the economy in coming months didn't reflect
the present boom in the German economy, falling 2.5 points short of analyst
expectations to 17.6. Final CPI for the Euro-area was in line with expectations
while, the ZEW economic sentiment for the whole of Europe was also 7.5 points
below analyst expectations to 26.7. Focus will be on ECB President Mario
Draghi's speech at the ECB conference in Frankfurt 9:10am Wednesday.
The drama continues in Southwestern Europe as Carles Puigdemont
refuses to state an outright 'Yes' or 'No' on Catalonia Independence. Spanish Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy has given till Thursday for a clear answer on
Catalonia's Independence; else, Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution will be
exercised. This spells doom for Carles Puigdemont as the exercise of Article
155 implies an end to the Catalan Parliament. A significant number of companies
are leaving Catalonia for other parts of Spain and S&P noted the region
could face a recession if it declares Independence. Though the Euro seems
unaffected by this drama at the moment, the effect of increased tension in
Catalonia on Spain (the Euro-area's fourth largest economy) would weigh heavily
on the Euro.
The loonie edged lower against the dollar in Tuesday's trade. M/M
manufacturing sales are expected from Canada on Wednesday. Donald Trump's take
on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) does no good to the Canadian
economy. The regional agreement has been up for debate between the three
parties involved (US, Canada & Mexico) with no conclusive agreement
reached. The US President has threatened to scrap the agreement and sign a new
one with Canada. Should he make true his threat, the Canadian dollar has been
forecasted to dip by 10% by the Bank of Canada. The Canadian dollar could feed
off the fight between Iraq and Kurdistan, as rising oil prices is in favor of
the Canadian economy.
The Australian dollar, early Tuesday traded lower against the dollar
on the back of dovish monetary policy stance but gained momentum later in the
day. Data coming from the country early Wednesday shows Melbourne Institute
index turned positive to 0.1% from negative 0.1% the prior period. Employment
data from the country & Chinese GDP numbers are expected tomorrow, both
economic indices will impact the direction of the AUD. Most importantly the
Chinese government’s twice a decade party congress on Friday is to look out for.
Early hours trading shows slight gains for the AUD moving from a low of 0.7841
to 0.7857 against the dollar.
Gold permuted on the back of its negative correlation with the
dollar. The metal which was back above 1,300 as at Friday fell to 1,284.70.
News on Taylor John as favorite for Fed Chair, gave the dollar a boost hence,
permuting gold. Heightened tensions in Spain later in the week could shoot Gold
back up as it is considered a safe haven in times of uncertainty/volatility.
Oil prices continued northward following Iraqi-Kurdish fight. On Tuesday, the
Iraqi army occupied the city of Kirkuk, which is located in an oil-rich
region. Continued fights in oil rich regions raises oil prices, brent
crude stood at $58.27 rising 0.67%.
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