Nigeria’s 2018-2020 Revenue Projections Feasible – FRC chairman

Victor Muruako, Acting Chairman, Fiscal Responsibility Commission, FRC, says the revenue projections contained in the 2018-2020 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) are feasible.

He told the News Agency of Nigeria, NAN, on Tuesday in Abuja that the projections were in line with the realities on ground.

According to him, the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP, of the Federal Government has helped shape the 2018-2020 MTEF and formed the basis for the 2018 budget projections as outlined in the document.

He commended the Federal Government for engaging Civil Society Organisations, CSOs, the media and organised private sector in consultations for the preparation of the document, adding that it was the first time such would happen.

He also said the involvement of civil society and other sectors was in line with the provisions of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) 2007.

The Ministry of Budget and National Planning, had on Thursday, carried out a public consultation on the 2018-2020 MTEF and FSP.

The key assumptions and macro-framework of the 2018 budget were predicated on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day (mbpd), oil price of 45 dollars per barrel and an exchange rate of N305 to one dollar.

The inflation rate was pegged at 12.42 per cent and Gross Domestic Product growth rate was pegged at 4.8 per cent.

It was also projected in the MTEF that oil production would be 2.4 mbpd in 2019; 2.5 mbpd in 2020, while exchange rate was retained at N305 to one dollar for 2019 and 2020.

Inflation was projected to stay at 13.39 per cent in 2019 and 9.90 per cent in 2020.

The MTEF/FSP is a three-year planning tool that defines government’s economic, social and development objectives and priorities.

In a related development, BP expects global oil prices to hold within a range of $45-$55 a barrel next year as U.S. shale production grows, the British company’s chief financial officer said on Tuesday.

Brian Gilvary told Reuters in London that global demand was looking pretty strong, and prices would firm around the levels seen today.

“We can now see where the price elasticity is. As the price comes up to $52-$53 a barrel, we start to see some uptick in activity, as it drops to $45, we start to see that curtailing.

“For 2018, something around $45-$55 a barrel is probably a good range.

“(This is because) after a slow start to the year, global oil demand recovered in the second quarter of 2017 and was expected to grow by 1.4 to 1.5 million barrels per day,” Gilvary said.
Brent crude oil prices averaged $51.71 a barrel in the first half of 2017 and are currently just below $53 a barrel.

Earlier BP reported a drop in second quarter profits after an exploration write-off in Angola.

(NAN)