FOMC, FOMC,FOMC

The much talked about December Fed meeting is finally here, 8:00pm Wednesday will see the Fed announce a new funds rate after a 2 day FOMC meeting. Investors have over the months anticipated a hike in funds rate given the Feds decision to gradually raise rates. Inflation however seems to pose the biggest challenge to a rate hike as inflation numbers remain soft despite solid economic growth in the US. CPI numbers are expected in by 2:30pm analyst forecast show expectations of a rise to 0.4% from 0.1% in November. Lower than anticipated CPI numbers could hold back the much expected rate hike. The dollar in Tuesday's trading rallied on the back of impressive PPI data. Core PPI rose to a 6 year high of 0.3%. USD/CAD rose to 1.2891 before retreating to 1.2867.


Inflation in Britain can't be held down as CPI numbers rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%. Core CPI was however unchanged at 2.7%. Mike Prestwood, National Statistics Head of inflation noted that CPI rose to a 6 year high, a spin off from higher prices of computer games and lower airfares. Falling cost of computer equipments however offsets higher inflation. Brexit negotiations are expected to move on to trade talks at the EU's summit next week after all the back and forth on the size of the divorce bill and North Ireland. Employment data will take center stage for the British pound in Wednesday's trading as the market expects the release of earnings index, claimant count change & unemployment rate. GBP/USD was stable for most part of Tuesday's trading.

EUR/USD took a plunge on the back of impressive Producer's Price Index in the US. It fell to 1.1717 before moving back to 1.1723. Disappointing ZEW data was shrugged off by investors as they believe the German economy is looking sharp and is leading the way for solid economic growth in the Euro-area. The lack of government in German puts a bit of worry in investors mind. Today will see the release of German CPI, Employment change and industrial production of the Euro-area.

NZD/USD maintained it's upward movement while AUD/USD fell to thepressures of positiv PPI in the US. Trading in the course of the Asia session was relatively stable as the market looks forward to minutes of the FOMC meeting.

On the commodities side, Gold fell to 1,236 in the course of Tuesday's trading but rose back up to 1,244. The yellow metal is taking a beating from positive US data and divestment to Bitcoin. Oil prices rose on the back of unexpected pipeline shut down in the UK. Brent crude rose to $ 65.

Dangote Cement stirs industrial revolution in Africa, with the commissioning of Mfila plant in the Republic of Congo

Dangote Cement Plc yesterday added fillip to the on-going efforts at economic emancipation of Africa when it formally opened its 1.5mtpa capacity cement plant in Mfila, Congo Brazzaville, amid ecstasy by the government and the indigenes of the Country.

The new plant estimated at $300 million has potentials for about 1000 direct employment and thousands of several other indirect jobs.

Undoubtedly the biggest plant in Congo, its President, Mr. Denis Sassou Nguesso while inaugurating the plant said the investment was an industrial revolution, sort of, within the Economic Community of the Central African States (CEMAC), saying his country was happy to host the investment.

According to him, his government has observed the operations of Dangote cement in other African countries and it has helped buoy their economies by sparking off other allied industries expressing the hope that Congo situation would not be an exception.

The Congolese President described the coming on stream of the Dangote cement as timely and encouraging because it is starting operations at a time the total government revenues have plummeted by 31.3 percent and revenues from the oil sector have fallen 65.1 percent since 2015 due to a slide in global crude prices.

President Mohammadu Buhari who was represented at the event by a powerful delegation led by the Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Dr. Kayode Fayemi commended Alhaji Aliko Dangote and his Cement Company for championing economic renaissance of Africa with the construction of cement plants across several African countries saying the sterling accomplishment makes the Dangote Cement brand, and indeed Aliko Dangote himself, worthy ambassadors of Nigeria.

President Buhari said his government has consistently supported and encouraged the Dangote Group (http://Dangote.com) in its quest to contribute its quota to the economic emancipation of the African continent, which is blessed with a plethora of natural resources. “I believe that it is only home-grown practical solutions that can address the myriad issues plaguing Africa today and one of such challenges that Africa has been grappling with for decades is the infrastructure deficit. I am confident that massive investments in cement production, which is a key driver of infrastructural development, will contribute in no small measure, to addressing this perennial problem.”

President Buhari recalled with satisfaction that local cement manufacturers such as Dangote Cement, Lafarge and BUA, have exploited one of the solid minerals, limestone which is a basic input for cement production and which Nigeria has in abundance, in different parts of the country to achieve self-sufficiency in local cement production in 2015, and is now a net exporter of the product.

“The backward integration policy of the Federal Government in the cement sector, which was launched in 2002, has contributed to this success story by successfully substituting imports with local production, we have saved over $2billion spent on cement importation into Nigeria, annually.  

“We have also started using cement for road construction in the country due to its numerous advantages over the more common bituminous road. Again, in this area, Dangote Cement is leading the charge, through AG-Dangote, its joint venture with Andrade-Gutierrez, a construction giant in Brazil”, Nigeria’s President stated.  

Chairman of Dangote Cement Plc, Aliko Dangote in his address said his company was delighted to have completed the plant on schedule saying the addition of Dangote Cement’s 1.5 million metric tonnes per annum plant has more than doubled the total cement production capacity of Congo-Brazzaville, which now stands at 2.550 million metric tonnes per annum, far in excess of national demand.

“It is envisaged that this will contribute substantially to the availability and affordability of cement in the country and the Republic of the Congo will no longer need to depend on imports to bridge the gap between demand and supply. 

“It is our hope that the inauguration of the plant will boost Congo’s economy, conserve foreign exchange that would otherwise have been spent on imports for the country, and create employment opportunities down the value chain.”, he stated.

Dangote commended the Congolese government noting that the bold economic reform measures put in place by President Denis Sassou Nguesso administration have been quite salutary. “The construction industry, which is a major sector of the economy, is a beneficiary of his policies, and has been receiving the attention of investors. We believe that our investment will contribute to Congo-Brazzaville’s current economic renaissance under the leadership of the President Nguesso.” 

The Company Chairman pointed out that his organization received tremendous support and encouragement both from the government and the people of Congo-Brazzaville, right from the conceptualisation stage of our project, to its final completion, and commissioning.

In appreciation of the good gesture of the government and the people, Dangote disclosed that without waiting to stabilise production, the Cement company had already commenced CSR projects with the construction of a road with a length of 30km around Yamba, which would have cost the local government approximately 240 million CFA to execute.

He stated further “we have also disbursed scholarships for students and we are also building a school and renovating a hospital within our host communities. Apart from these, we have repaired a dilapidated bridge on a major highway at a cost of $300,000, to enable heavy duty vehicles to cross the bridge. As a policy, we also ensure that we give priority to qualified indigenes from our local host communities in our recruitment drive.”

Dangote told the gathering that Dangote Cement total production capacity across Africa at the end of May 2017, stood at 45.8 million metric tonnes per annum, making it one of the biggest cement producers on the continent adding that the aspiration is to rank among the top 10 cement producers in the world by 2020. 

Dangote cement commissioned its cement plants in four African countries namely: Ethiopia, Zambia, Cameroun and Tanzania. The Congo-Brazzaville plant, which began operations in the third quarter of 2017, will be the fifth cement plant that would be inaugurated in the last two years.

Yen Rises Despite Disappointing GDP

The Euro was high on positive economic data in Tuesday's trading recording a three weak high. The currency's recovery comes on the back of a 0.8% rise in q/q GDP in the Euro-area and a 30.9 ZEW economic sentiment signalling investors confidence in the growth of the Euro economy for the next 6 months. Italian GDP was also above expectations and strong growth in central and eastern European countries added to the overall positive tone. EUR/USD  returned to 1.1804 in the course of trading on Tuesday. French m/m CPI and the Euro-area's trade balance are expected in today. Investors bullishness on the Euro will however be dependent on major economic data coming out from other climes.


GBP had a rough encounter in Tuesday's trading as inflation numbers stood at 3.0%, falling short of analyst forecast by 0.1%. input PPI rose to 1% while Retail Price Index (RPI) and Core CPI came out disappointing. GBP/USD fell to 1.3074 before retreating back to 1.3186. Traders were cautious, watching closely the debate of the EU Withdrawal Bill. The legislation is crucial to ensure a smooth transition after Brexit but with only a small working majority, the prime minister, Theresa May, could struggle to pass the bill as up to 10 Conservative MPs are reportedly planning to vote against it. News coming in early Wednesday morning notes the British government defeated the first amendments to the bill. The bill however has a long way to go with the parliamentary scrutiny expected to take weeks. Earnings index, claimant count & unemployment data are expected in today. This together with the ongoing bill debate will set the tone for the British pound in Wednesday's trading.


The US dollar remains under pressure as declining treasury yields continues to weigh down the greenback. The dollar struggled against the Japanese yen dropping to a low of 113.29. During the Asian session it drop further to 113.05 despite Japan's poor GDP numbers. The currency however takes the center stage today with the release of CPI & retail sales data. Analyst forecast show a decline in CPI to 0.1% while retail sales is expected to fall to 0.0%.


On the commodities side, gold rebounded to 1,283 on the back of the declining dollar, while Brent crude fell by 1.17% to $61.48.

Inflation Takes Center Stage

Three weeks of a bullish run ended for the dollar in the prior week as tax reforms delay took its toll on the greenback. Investors became concerned about the delay in implimentation of the US corporate tax cuts after the Senate plan submitted on Thursday differed in key areas from the House version, revealing that corporate tax cuts might not take effect until 2019. USD/CAD fell to 1.2685 from 1.2757 the prior week. Economic data will be at the front burner this week as CPI and retail sales numbers are expected in on Wednesday. Analyst forecast show a 0.2% rise in core inflation while core retail sales is expected to slow down to 0.2% from 1% the prior month. The dollar traded flat against other major currencies at market open.


Some form of progress seems to have been made on the Brexit front. EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in his meeting with the Brexit secretary David Davis in Brussels on Friday said that Brexit talks have achieved "some progress" but still more work needed to be done for the talks to move to trade relations. Moreover, he asked Britain to clarify its financial obligations to the EU within two weeks before he considers whether "sufficient progress" has been made ahead of the EU summit in December. Earlier, the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, unveiled her plans to set an official date and time on the UK's departure from the EU. News filtering in in the course of the weekend however reveals Prime Minister's Theresa May is under pressure to resign her office.  40 conservative members of the parliament agreed to sign a no confidence in her. The Conservatives are 8 members short of what is needed for a leadership challenge. This may further the stall the already slow progress of the process of Brexit. On the economic front, CPI numbers and jobs data are to be released in the course of the new week. Rightmove HPI dropped to -0.8% during the Asian trading session, this pushed GBP/USD down to 1.3106, while GBP/JPY slipped to 148.96. No other economic data is expected for the rest of the day from the UK.

The Euro-area will also witness the release of major economic data this week as CPI, GDP  industrial production numbers are all expected this week. The prior week saw the ECB revise it's growth projection of the European economy to 2.2%, while inflation forecast was revised downwards to 1.5%. Forecast show analyst expect no change in Flash GDP q/q, while final core CPI y/y is also expected to remain at 1.4%.  Other data to look for include ZEW economic sentiment, current account & trade balance. The direction of these data will dictate the tune of the Euro for the week. Trade on the Euro however opened on a bearish note as it dropped to 1.1644 against the USD during the Asian trading session.

Canadian inflation will be top on investors list on Friday. The BoC governor, Stephen Poloz, noted in the prior week that the Bank's next move will be data dependent. Though employment numbers and consumer spending have been burgeoning, inflation isn't picking up as quickly as had been anticipated and economic growth in the second half of the year is showing signs of a slowdown compared to the first half. This accounts for the BoC's cautious stance on further rate hikes over the coming months. October CPI readings on Friday will therefore be watched carefully for any signs of an increase in inflation. A number higher than analyst forecast of 0.1% could give the loonie a jolly ride against the dollar.

Wage data from Australia will be in this week. Household debt has been outpacing wage growth, this has forced the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates as they are for quite some time. Forecast show analyst expect a 0.2 percentage points rise to 0.7%, actual data along this line will give the AUD a boost.


Wednesday morning will see the release of Japan's prelim GDP y/y. The economy is expected to maintain its growth streak as the last 6 quarters has seen the Japanese economy record positive GDP. Another quarter of expansion may however not translate to a rise of the JPY in the currency market as the BoJ's remains dovish.

A mysterious trade that moved 4 million ounces of gold in about 30 minutes on Friday drowned gold price, as it fell to 1,274.20. The yellow metal which had been trading below the psychological 1,300 point for quite some time has witnessed similar trade in recent months. Brent crude maintains its above $60 price.

Tax Reforms Twist & Turns, Brexit Talks Resumes

Tax reforms in the US remains big on investors minds as a delay which they are are uncomfortable with lingers. USD/JPY lost 0.2% dropping to 113.22.  US senators are paring some of the corporate tax cuts in an effort to keep the impact of the proposed bill under $1.5 trillion. Republican senators are pushing back the timelines on reducing the corporate tax rate until 2019 and will water down the original plan introduced by the Trump Administration. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has already said that a delay is better than a longer phase in. The amount of differences between the Senate proposal and the one working its way through the House of representatives are considerable and increase the chances of the tax overhaul not being a reality in 2017.  Unemployment claims was disappointing rising to 239,000 falling short of analyst forecast by 7,000. This is opined to come on the back of improvement of claims processing disrupted by the hurricanes. Despite the increase, claims remain far below the 300,000 mark. This feat, which holds true for the 139th consecutive week (the longest since 1970),  signals a robust jobs market. Wholesale inventory data was just in-line with investors expectations at 0.3%. Though the US is on a bank holiday, prelim consumers sentiments and inflation expectations are data to look for on the release front.

GBP/USD shrugged off Brexit noise as it rose 0.11% to 1.3131 given unimpressive economic data from the US. The Brexit talks resumed and Britain's financial obligation to the EU remains a challenge. The European Union is demanding EUR 60 billion, while Britain has countered with an offer for EUR 20 billion. The trade deal is most important to Britian, but the Europeans are insisting on more progress on the fulfillment of financial obligations as well as on other non-trade issues. If the sides still remain deadlocked in December without no deal in sight, hardliners on both sides could derail the talks completely, which would send shivers up the spines of investors and hurt the British pound. The Prime Minister's ability to follow through with Brexit remains a major issue as two ministers recently to resign from May's cabinet forcefully, and she hasn't been able to present a coherent Brexit policy to the Europeans or to the voters at home. BoE chair Mark Carney expressed concern at the lack of uncertainty over a final deal with the European Union, saying that the economy "should really be booming, but it's just growing." Economic data expected from the UK are manufacturing production, trade balance, construction output & industrial production all of which will dictate the direction of the pound today. GBP/USD & GBP/JPY traded flat during the Asian trading session.

The Euro was upbeat in Thursday's trading rising to 1.1653 against the dollar. The ECB's growth forecast for 2017 put the Euro-area's growth at 2.2%, 5 percentage points higher that the prior 1.7%. Its forecast of the UK's growth however fell to 1.5%. while it projects a slowdown for the nation in 2018-19 as well. Germany's trade balance rose above analyst forecast to 21.8b. Investors will be looking out for French industrial output and Prelim private payroll. Italy's industrial production is also expected to come in today. The currency remained flat against the dollar during the Asia session.

The RBNZ delivering what was perceived as a "hawkish hold" of rates at record low levels returned momentum to the NZD as it gained 0.2% rising to a 2 week high against the dollar to 0.6979 earlier in the day before it retreated. Despite the pullback, the pair retained most of its gains. Neighbors Australia had its Reserve Bank lower inflation forecast all through 2019. Although this was the likely outcome due to the change in CPI measurement methodology, AUD/NZD could experience a sell-off  given the divergent monetary policy rhetoric of late between the RBNZ and RBA.

Commodities data showed Gold returned to a bullish run as the dollar wars with tax reforms. The yellow metal rose to 1,288. Brent crude retained it's above $60 price.

RBNZ in Focus, Tax Reforms Rides the Dollar

Jolts jobs opening returned the dollar to a rally as it beat analyst expectations staying at 6.09m. This aided the USD's return upwards gaining 0.28% against the Canadian dollar rising to 1.2807. Fitch raised US debt to GDP ratio on the back of the effect current tax reforms would have on federal deficit. The house remains divided on the tax reforms as Democrats and some Republicans are uncomfortable with the effect the tax cut would have on debt. News filtering in during the Asian session notes that US Senate Republicans may delay the corporate tax cuts by 1 year. But details could change ahead of Thursday's formal release of the bill by the Senate Finance Committee.  Crude inventories are expected in today analyst have forecasted  -2.5m as against the prior week's -2.4m.


The RBNZ will later today announce its stance on interest rate as it concludes its 2 day monetary policy meeting. Expectations are that the official cash rate will be left unchanged at 1.75%. The Labour party's intention of including full employment to the RBNZ's responsibility may come to fruition as reports indicates the party is reviewing the dual function of the Central Bank. This could also include the addition of external members to the monetary policy committee which presently consist of the RBNZ chair and his deputy. Trading during the Asian session brought back NZD/USD to 0.6917 after it slid to 0.6890 in the course of trading yesterday. A dovish rate statement may push the currency pair further down south.

The Euro took a plunge in the course of trading on Tuesday as it fell to a low of 1.1557 against the dollar. Investors ignored a higher than forecasted retail sales data as German Industrial Production, French Balance Budget and Retail PMI were not as impressive. Retail sales rose to 0.7% from -0.1% the prior period and above analyst forecast of 0.6%. 3 of ECB policymakers according to sources familiar with the ECB, wanted a tighten of the central bank's quantitative easing program even if inflation remains soft. Note that, the ECB announced on October 26 to continue buying bonds until price pressures increase. The ECB chief, Mario Draghi, did not comment on monetary policy at the second ECB Forum on Banking Supervision on Tuesday, while the ECB board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said she "would have liked a clear exit" from the asset purchase program. Besides the French trade balance, the Euro-area would have a quite day in terms of economic data.

The British Pounds returned northward on the back of Halifax HPI being much in line with analyst expectations. The index rose to 0.3% down from the prior period's 0.8% but above a 0.2% forecast. GBP/USD rose to 1.3176 but retreated during the New York session on the back of brexit pressures as investors wait for negotiation to enter the next stage. It rose back to 1.3168. News on Brexit and economic data from other major currencies will dictate the tune of the pound for the day as there is no economic data expected from the UK today. GBP/JPY traded flat during the Asian session.

The RBA's retention of cash rate at 1.5% led the Aussie down a bearish path to 0.7630 against the dollar. Inflation being below the Central Bank's band of 2-3% and rising household debt continues to hold down interest rate. China's trade balance if positive could return AUD/USD upwards.


On the commodities side, gold erased Monday's gains falling to 1, 272 as the dollar rebounded. Oil prices remained above $60 on the back of the mid east tumult. OPEC in its 2017 world oil outlook forecasted a rise in shale production and demand growth for the next 2 years

RBA, RBNZ takes the Floor

The RBA & the RBNZ will be taking their turn this week to announce their stance on interest rate. The RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged as Australia struggles with rising household debt and inflation remains way below the Bank's 2-3% target. The AUD has been on a downward spiral against the dollar since the release of soft retail sales number in October. Over in New Zealand, the RBNZ will also be meeting to decide on interest rate this week. The Labour party's election win dragged down the Kiwi dollar against other major currencies as the party's inexperience made investor's uncomfortable. A better than expected jobs data however reminded investors of the country's strong fundamentals despite lower growth outlook. The acting governor of the RBNZ will be expected to announce no change in cash rate but investors already anticipate a rate change at the next meeting. The Asian trading session saw the release of q/q inflation expectation which fell to 2% from 2.1% in August. This pulled down NZD/USD by 21 pips dropping to 0.6885 as at the time of writing. m/m ANZ commodities prices also fell to -0.3% from 0.8%.


USD gracefully went through the event full week coming out almost unscared as it recovered from the beating it took at the release of poor non-farm payroll numbers. EUR/USD rose to 1.1689 reacting to a decline in NFP,  before retreating back to 1.1607. President Trump confirmed Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair, he is expected to carry on with the present monetary policy stance of gradual  rate increase, while the house released the tax bill. The new week will be a bit quite for the dollar in terms of economic data. The greenback's resilence despite the stormy week signals it may soon resume a rally.

 The Euro which had a quite week continued to suffer from post-ECB meeting reactions dropping to a low of 1.1606 against the dollar and EUR/CAD fell to 1.4808. The Euro's week will be dominated by final services PMI and other industrial & trade data from across Europe. A stronger Euro has triggered worries of lower export in some ECB policymakers hence, trade data will be watched closely. 8am today will see the release of some of these data which would shape the tune of the Euro for the new week.

BoE's highly anticipated meeting threw the pound down south as GBP/USD fell to 1.3058 despite a rate hike. This is a positive for UK exporters as weaker pound makes UK goods cheaper for trade partners. Industrial and trade numbers are also expected in the UK this week. The manufacturing sector remains a strong driver of UK's GDP post brexit as it bouyed  the country's faster than expected q3 GDP.

USD/JPY fell to 114.00, but has rebounded during the Asian session climbing up to 114.73. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged at its meeting the prior week, but with a dovish BoJ, the discussion appears to be shifting to whether further measures are needed to accelerate the journey towards reaching the 2% inflation target. The summary of opinions of the October meeting, due on Thursday, should provide some insight as to how far the discussions went on the dissenting board member's view to start targeting the yield on 15-year Japanese government bonds in addition to 10-year ones.

On the commodities side, Gold plunged to 1,266 in Friday's trading while Brent crude rose by 0.29% to $62.25 as support grows for OPECs oil cut extension and Saudi clamps down on its corrupt leaders.