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PMIs & CPIs

The outgone week saw the dollar retain its weakness. The US treasury secretary, pledging his support for a weak dollar at the World Economic Forum, n the course of the week, ticked off investors as they sold down on the dollar after the statement was made. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.2312, losing 1.5% week on week. The dollar remains weak despite rising yields, this is contrary to the norm. Rising yield are usually accompanied by a strong currency, as high interest rates attract foreign investors, hence a high demand for the currency involved. This divergence highlights waning interest in US debt instruments, concerns about rising deficits and long-term debt sustainability may be fueling the sell off of US treasuries, this coupled with talks of China and Japan ( the biggest investors in US Treasuries) cutting back on their purchases, accounts for the rise in yields.The coming week will be a very busy one for the USD, the release of PCE (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) on Monday, the first FOMC meeting of the year and employment data later in the week will set the tone for the dollar.

The pound had a sterling performance in the outgone week gaining 2.25% against the dollar. This comes on the back of positive employment and GDP data released in the course of the week. Improved GDP numbers feeds off positive net export given the depreciation of the pound. The ability of UK & EU negotiators to agree on their terms of divorce in December, calmed a lot of nerves. The Bank of England Governor, noted at the World Economic Forum last week that greater clarity on Brexit could help the UK economy "recouple" with the rest of the world. The hope of a smooth brexit sail saw the pound rise to a high of 1.43/USD in the course of the week. On the data front, the coming week will see the release of construction and manufacturing PMI.


The Euro followed in the stride of the pound as it rose to a high of 1.2538 against the dollar. ECB meeting held in course of the outgone week saw Mario Draghi reassure investors of the ECB's intentions of winding down its expansionary policies later in the year. This gave the Euro a boost as it gained 2% against the dollar on a week on week basis. GDP & CPI data from all across Europe will be in this week together with final manufacturing PMI. Forecast show analyst expect core CPI in the Euro-area to inch up to 1% from 0.9% the prior period & unemployment rate to stay the same at 8.7%.

Gaining 3.5% against the dollar so far in 2018, the Aussie has been able to take full advantage of the weakness of the greenback. Given weak fundamentals, analyst believe the AUD's rally is unsustainable. Falling iron-ore prices, decelerating growth of the Chinese economy and low interest rate all point to a weak Aussie. CPI data is expected in this week, forecast show analyst expect a rise to 0.7% in the fourth quarter as against 0.6% in the prior quarter. Building approvals are expected to dip to 7.5% from  the 11.7% released earlier this month. Higher than expected data could see the Aussie rally this week.

On the commodities side, Gold remains a delight reaching a high of 1,365.63/dollar in the prior week. A bit of consolidated on the yellow metal is expected in the new week as investors take profit on gains. Oil prices maintain their high with Brent crude trading at $70.47.

FOMC, FOMC,FOMC

The much talked about December Fed meeting is finally here, 8:00pm Wednesday will see the Fed announce a new funds rate after a 2 day FOMC meeting. Investors have over the months anticipated a hike in funds rate given the Feds decision to gradually raise rates. Inflation however seems to pose the biggest challenge to a rate hike as inflation numbers remain soft despite solid economic growth in the US. CPI numbers are expected in by 2:30pm analyst forecast show expectations of a rise to 0.4% from 0.1% in November. Lower than anticipated CPI numbers could hold back the much expected rate hike. The dollar in Tuesday's trading rallied on the back of impressive PPI data. Core PPI rose to a 6 year high of 0.3%. USD/CAD rose to 1.2891 before retreating to 1.2867.


Inflation in Britain can't be held down as CPI numbers rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%. Core CPI was however unchanged at 2.7%. Mike Prestwood, National Statistics Head of inflation noted that CPI rose to a 6 year high, a spin off from higher prices of computer games and lower airfares. Falling cost of computer equipments however offsets higher inflation. Brexit negotiations are expected to move on to trade talks at the EU's summit next week after all the back and forth on the size of the divorce bill and North Ireland. Employment data will take center stage for the British pound in Wednesday's trading as the market expects the release of earnings index, claimant count change & unemployment rate. GBP/USD was stable for most part of Tuesday's trading.

EUR/USD took a plunge on the back of impressive Producer's Price Index in the US. It fell to 1.1717 before moving back to 1.1723. Disappointing ZEW data was shrugged off by investors as they believe the German economy is looking sharp and is leading the way for solid economic growth in the Euro-area. The lack of government in German puts a bit of worry in investors mind. Today will see the release of German CPI, Employment change and industrial production of the Euro-area.

NZD/USD maintained it's upward movement while AUD/USD fell to thepressures of positiv PPI in the US. Trading in the course of the Asia session was relatively stable as the market looks forward to minutes of the FOMC meeting.

On the commodities side, Gold fell to 1,236 in the course of Tuesday's trading but rose back up to 1,244. The yellow metal is taking a beating from positive US data and divestment to Bitcoin. Oil prices rose on the back of unexpected pipeline shut down in the UK. Brent crude rose to $ 65.

Dangote Cement stirs industrial revolution in Africa, with the commissioning of Mfila plant in the Republic of Congo

Dangote Cement Plc yesterday added fillip to the on-going efforts at economic emancipation of Africa when it formally opened its 1.5mtpa capacity cement plant in Mfila, Congo Brazzaville, amid ecstasy by the government and the indigenes of the Country.

The new plant estimated at $300 million has potentials for about 1000 direct employment and thousands of several other indirect jobs.

Undoubtedly the biggest plant in Congo, its President, Mr. Denis Sassou Nguesso while inaugurating the plant said the investment was an industrial revolution, sort of, within the Economic Community of the Central African States (CEMAC), saying his country was happy to host the investment.

According to him, his government has observed the operations of Dangote cement in other African countries and it has helped buoy their economies by sparking off other allied industries expressing the hope that Congo situation would not be an exception.

The Congolese President described the coming on stream of the Dangote cement as timely and encouraging because it is starting operations at a time the total government revenues have plummeted by 31.3 percent and revenues from the oil sector have fallen 65.1 percent since 2015 due to a slide in global crude prices.

President Mohammadu Buhari who was represented at the event by a powerful delegation led by the Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Dr. Kayode Fayemi commended Alhaji Aliko Dangote and his Cement Company for championing economic renaissance of Africa with the construction of cement plants across several African countries saying the sterling accomplishment makes the Dangote Cement brand, and indeed Aliko Dangote himself, worthy ambassadors of Nigeria.

President Buhari said his government has consistently supported and encouraged the Dangote Group (http://Dangote.com) in its quest to contribute its quota to the economic emancipation of the African continent, which is blessed with a plethora of natural resources. “I believe that it is only home-grown practical solutions that can address the myriad issues plaguing Africa today and one of such challenges that Africa has been grappling with for decades is the infrastructure deficit. I am confident that massive investments in cement production, which is a key driver of infrastructural development, will contribute in no small measure, to addressing this perennial problem.”

President Buhari recalled with satisfaction that local cement manufacturers such as Dangote Cement, Lafarge and BUA, have exploited one of the solid minerals, limestone which is a basic input for cement production and which Nigeria has in abundance, in different parts of the country to achieve self-sufficiency in local cement production in 2015, and is now a net exporter of the product.

“The backward integration policy of the Federal Government in the cement sector, which was launched in 2002, has contributed to this success story by successfully substituting imports with local production, we have saved over $2billion spent on cement importation into Nigeria, annually.  

“We have also started using cement for road construction in the country due to its numerous advantages over the more common bituminous road. Again, in this area, Dangote Cement is leading the charge, through AG-Dangote, its joint venture with Andrade-Gutierrez, a construction giant in Brazil”, Nigeria’s President stated.  

Chairman of Dangote Cement Plc, Aliko Dangote in his address said his company was delighted to have completed the plant on schedule saying the addition of Dangote Cement’s 1.5 million metric tonnes per annum plant has more than doubled the total cement production capacity of Congo-Brazzaville, which now stands at 2.550 million metric tonnes per annum, far in excess of national demand.

“It is envisaged that this will contribute substantially to the availability and affordability of cement in the country and the Republic of the Congo will no longer need to depend on imports to bridge the gap between demand and supply. 

“It is our hope that the inauguration of the plant will boost Congo’s economy, conserve foreign exchange that would otherwise have been spent on imports for the country, and create employment opportunities down the value chain.”, he stated.

Dangote commended the Congolese government noting that the bold economic reform measures put in place by President Denis Sassou Nguesso administration have been quite salutary. “The construction industry, which is a major sector of the economy, is a beneficiary of his policies, and has been receiving the attention of investors. We believe that our investment will contribute to Congo-Brazzaville’s current economic renaissance under the leadership of the President Nguesso.” 

The Company Chairman pointed out that his organization received tremendous support and encouragement both from the government and the people of Congo-Brazzaville, right from the conceptualisation stage of our project, to its final completion, and commissioning.

In appreciation of the good gesture of the government and the people, Dangote disclosed that without waiting to stabilise production, the Cement company had already commenced CSR projects with the construction of a road with a length of 30km around Yamba, which would have cost the local government approximately 240 million CFA to execute.

He stated further “we have also disbursed scholarships for students and we are also building a school and renovating a hospital within our host communities. Apart from these, we have repaired a dilapidated bridge on a major highway at a cost of $300,000, to enable heavy duty vehicles to cross the bridge. As a policy, we also ensure that we give priority to qualified indigenes from our local host communities in our recruitment drive.”

Dangote told the gathering that Dangote Cement total production capacity across Africa at the end of May 2017, stood at 45.8 million metric tonnes per annum, making it one of the biggest cement producers on the continent adding that the aspiration is to rank among the top 10 cement producers in the world by 2020. 

Dangote cement commissioned its cement plants in four African countries namely: Ethiopia, Zambia, Cameroun and Tanzania. The Congo-Brazzaville plant, which began operations in the third quarter of 2017, will be the fifth cement plant that would be inaugurated in the last two years.

Yen Rises Despite Disappointing GDP

The Euro was high on positive economic data in Tuesday's trading recording a three weak high. The currency's recovery comes on the back of a 0.8% rise in q/q GDP in the Euro-area and a 30.9 ZEW economic sentiment signalling investors confidence in the growth of the Euro economy for the next 6 months. Italian GDP was also above expectations and strong growth in central and eastern European countries added to the overall positive tone. EUR/USD  returned to 1.1804 in the course of trading on Tuesday. French m/m CPI and the Euro-area's trade balance are expected in today. Investors bullishness on the Euro will however be dependent on major economic data coming out from other climes.


GBP had a rough encounter in Tuesday's trading as inflation numbers stood at 3.0%, falling short of analyst forecast by 0.1%. input PPI rose to 1% while Retail Price Index (RPI) and Core CPI came out disappointing. GBP/USD fell to 1.3074 before retreating back to 1.3186. Traders were cautious, watching closely the debate of the EU Withdrawal Bill. The legislation is crucial to ensure a smooth transition after Brexit but with only a small working majority, the prime minister, Theresa May, could struggle to pass the bill as up to 10 Conservative MPs are reportedly planning to vote against it. News coming in early Wednesday morning notes the British government defeated the first amendments to the bill. The bill however has a long way to go with the parliamentary scrutiny expected to take weeks. Earnings index, claimant count & unemployment data are expected in today. This together with the ongoing bill debate will set the tone for the British pound in Wednesday's trading.


The US dollar remains under pressure as declining treasury yields continues to weigh down the greenback. The dollar struggled against the Japanese yen dropping to a low of 113.29. During the Asian session it drop further to 113.05 despite Japan's poor GDP numbers. The currency however takes the center stage today with the release of CPI & retail sales data. Analyst forecast show a decline in CPI to 0.1% while retail sales is expected to fall to 0.0%.


On the commodities side, gold rebounded to 1,283 on the back of the declining dollar, while Brent crude fell by 1.17% to $61.48.

Inflation Takes Center Stage

Three weeks of a bullish run ended for the dollar in the prior week as tax reforms delay took its toll on the greenback. Investors became concerned about the delay in implimentation of the US corporate tax cuts after the Senate plan submitted on Thursday differed in key areas from the House version, revealing that corporate tax cuts might not take effect until 2019. USD/CAD fell to 1.2685 from 1.2757 the prior week. Economic data will be at the front burner this week as CPI and retail sales numbers are expected in on Wednesday. Analyst forecast show a 0.2% rise in core inflation while core retail sales is expected to slow down to 0.2% from 1% the prior month. The dollar traded flat against other major currencies at market open.


Some form of progress seems to have been made on the Brexit front. EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in his meeting with the Brexit secretary David Davis in Brussels on Friday said that Brexit talks have achieved "some progress" but still more work needed to be done for the talks to move to trade relations. Moreover, he asked Britain to clarify its financial obligations to the EU within two weeks before he considers whether "sufficient progress" has been made ahead of the EU summit in December. Earlier, the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, unveiled her plans to set an official date and time on the UK's departure from the EU. News filtering in in the course of the weekend however reveals Prime Minister's Theresa May is under pressure to resign her office.  40 conservative members of the parliament agreed to sign a no confidence in her. The Conservatives are 8 members short of what is needed for a leadership challenge. This may further the stall the already slow progress of the process of Brexit. On the economic front, CPI numbers and jobs data are to be released in the course of the new week. Rightmove HPI dropped to -0.8% during the Asian trading session, this pushed GBP/USD down to 1.3106, while GBP/JPY slipped to 148.96. No other economic data is expected for the rest of the day from the UK.

The Euro-area will also witness the release of major economic data this week as CPI, GDP  industrial production numbers are all expected this week. The prior week saw the ECB revise it's growth projection of the European economy to 2.2%, while inflation forecast was revised downwards to 1.5%. Forecast show analyst expect no change in Flash GDP q/q, while final core CPI y/y is also expected to remain at 1.4%.  Other data to look for include ZEW economic sentiment, current account & trade balance. The direction of these data will dictate the tune of the Euro for the week. Trade on the Euro however opened on a bearish note as it dropped to 1.1644 against the USD during the Asian trading session.

Canadian inflation will be top on investors list on Friday. The BoC governor, Stephen Poloz, noted in the prior week that the Bank's next move will be data dependent. Though employment numbers and consumer spending have been burgeoning, inflation isn't picking up as quickly as had been anticipated and economic growth in the second half of the year is showing signs of a slowdown compared to the first half. This accounts for the BoC's cautious stance on further rate hikes over the coming months. October CPI readings on Friday will therefore be watched carefully for any signs of an increase in inflation. A number higher than analyst forecast of 0.1% could give the loonie a jolly ride against the dollar.

Wage data from Australia will be in this week. Household debt has been outpacing wage growth, this has forced the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates as they are for quite some time. Forecast show analyst expect a 0.2 percentage points rise to 0.7%, actual data along this line will give the AUD a boost.


Wednesday morning will see the release of Japan's prelim GDP y/y. The economy is expected to maintain its growth streak as the last 6 quarters has seen the Japanese economy record positive GDP. Another quarter of expansion may however not translate to a rise of the JPY in the currency market as the BoJ's remains dovish.

A mysterious trade that moved 4 million ounces of gold in about 30 minutes on Friday drowned gold price, as it fell to 1,274.20. The yellow metal which had been trading below the psychological 1,300 point for quite some time has witnessed similar trade in recent months. Brent crude maintains its above $60 price.